Category Archives: Housing Market Intelligence

News or information regarding Arizona housing market.

Metro Phoenix Top Nationwide Overall Performance – December 2012

With the shining performance of Employment (6th), Unemployment (26th), Output (GDP) (3rd) and House Prices (1st), metro Phoenix proudly stands on the 3rd position among nation’s top 100 metro areas.

Phoenix led the West region and much of the nation with swift job growth of 0.8 percent over the quarter. Phoenix also has rebounded steadily with cumulative job growth of 4.5 percent.

The unemployment rate declines 0.4 percentage points in Phoenix and stood below 7.0 percent. Over the course of recovery, unemployment rate has fallen from the peak most swiftly in Arizona.

Output continued to recover in the metro Phoenix during the third quarter and the rate of expansion increased. Arizona metros led the region’s output growth with surges of 1.3 percent in Phoenix and 1.8 percent in Tucson over the quarter.

Increases in the House Price Index over the quarter a heady 4.6 percent in Phoenix – the largest increase in the country. Phoenix leads the West region in terms of overall house price recovery as well.

For more information, please click here.

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Arizona Ranks 3rd Among State-To-State Moves in 2011

The Most Common State-to-State Moves

Census Bureau just released state-to-state migration flow tables with 2011 American Community Survey estimates. The American Community Survey provides demographic, social, economic and housing statistics, including geographical mobility for every community across the nation every year.

U.S. Migration Map 2010 - 2011

The most common state-to-state moves in 2011 were:

  • New York to Florida: 59,288 movers
  • California to Texas: 58,992
  • California to Arizona: 49,635
  • Florida to Georgia: 42,666
  • New Jersey to New York: 41,450
  • New York to New Jersey: 40,815
  • California to Nevada: 40,114
  • Georgia to Florida: 38,658
  • California to Washington: 38,421
  • Texas to California: 37,087
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More Real Estate Pros Optimistic About Home Values

More real estate professionals are optimistic about the direction of home prices, according to a fourth-quarter survey by HomeGain of more than 200 practitioners and brokers nationwide.

Sixty-five percent of real estate professionals say they expect home values to rise in the next six months, up from 51 percent in the previous quarter.  In the fourth quarter of 2011, only 15 percent of practitioners said they expected home prices to rise.

“We are seeing a continued increase in optimism about the direction of home prices,” says Louis Cammarosano, general manager of HomeGain. “Real estate agents expect the recent pick up in the real estate market to continue in the coming two years.”

Indeed, the optimism in home values increases even more the further the outlook: Seventy-nine percent of real estate professionals and 62 percent of home owners say home values will likely increase in the next two years, according to the survey. Eleven percent of real estate practitioners say they expect home values to fall in the next six months.

Here are the 10 states where real estate professionals are most confident about rising home prices over the next six months:

  1. Idaho
  2. Michigan
  3. Arizona
  4. Texas
  5. Indiana
  6. California
  7. Florida
  8. Virginia
  9. North Carolina
  10. Colorado

The following are the top states where homeowner confidence about home values over the next six months is highest:

  1. Arizona
  2. Nevada
  3. Texas
  4. Colorado
  5. Wisconsin
  6. Washington
  7. Michigan
  8. Virginia
  9. Massachusetts
  10. Tennessee
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ARMLS RENT Check™ – Dec 17, 2012

Metro Phoenix Rental Market Snapshot

Median Lease $:  $1,095 vs $1,075 of Dec 2011
Average Lease $:  $1,237 vs $1,239 of Dec 2011
Avg. Days on Market:  44 vs 46 of Dec 2011
Rent Check Quotient™: 46% vs 40% of Dec 2011

Over the last 12 months, the rental market is very stable. However, there was some flucturation month-over-month yet the year-end numbers are lined up quite steady comparing to that of Dec 2011.

Looking forward, the rent will increase at the pace of 3-5% year-over-year depending on the area and condition of the properties.

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Pulte’s Waters @ Ocotillo Grand Opening

Pulte’s latest new home site in Chandler – Waters @ Ocotillo opened this Saturday 12/15. Although it was one of those very rare raining days here in the Sun Valley, people were all over the 4 brand new model homes.

I myself alone registered 6 clients in the first day, let alone there are many other agents who brought in their clients for this long waited community in the desired Ocotillo neighborhood. With the introduction of Waters @ Ocotillo by Pulte Homes, the Ocotillo master plan will be built out by the end of 2013.

Waters @ Ocotillo has 2 series priced from $359,990 – $510,990. These are just the base prices and Pulte is asking for $39,750 – $82,000 lot premium for those waterfront lots. These prices are for the 12 lots released this weekend. The new prices will be higher in the next release which is expected in the middle of Jan 2013.

The prices for Water @ Ocotillo are already high comparing to Maracay’s Stonefield just one mile North. Maracay just closed its sale office as I helped my client purchased the very last lot 2 months ago. With the waterfront lot and average 7,200 sf lot for the Cactus series and 10,000 sf lot for the Majesty series, these homes will for sure pump up the home prices in the Ocotillo neighborhood.

Now, a very special way Pulte has implemented to manage the high demand of this community is to award lots to the “highest and best” offer. It’s like those REO homes and Pulte will collect all offers to any released lots over the weekend and cut off at 12:00 PM Wednesday. So that’s about 4 days and half leave the lots on the market to solicitae all possible offers. Then Pulte will review all offers till Friday to inform the winners. There is no lottery nor first come first serve. All will be depended on Highest the offer and Best the terms such as full cash without contingent.

It will be very interesting to see how it plays out this “highest and best” practice. I will be monitoring this implementation very closely and so will many other builders.

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Fed Plans to Keep Interest Rates Low

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it plans to keep interest rates low as long as the unemployment rate is above 6.5 percent. This was the first time that the Fed has ever identified an exact unemployment rate to be reached before it plans to raise interest rates.

To push rates lower, the Fed will continue to buy $85 billion in Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities each month until the unemployment rate improves.

Since December 2008, the Fed has held short-term interest rates near zero. The move has helped reduce borrowing costs and helped mortgage rates reach all-time lows.

As of October 2012, the unemployment rate for Maricopa county is only 6.8% while the nationwide unemployment is still at 7.9% level. Thank you Fed!

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Phoenix Among Top 10 Seller’s Markets

Zillow looked at three factors to come up with the list: actual sales prices compared to asking prices, the number of days listings spent on Zillow and the percentage of homes on the market with a price cut.

  1. San Jose, CA
  2. San Francisco, CA
  3. Sacramento, CA
  4. Las Vegas, NV
  5. Phoenix, AZ
  6. Riverside, CA
  7. Los Angeles, CA
  8. San Diego, CA
  9. Seattle, WA
  10. Washington, DC

To read more – http://www.zillow.com/blog/2012-12-11/west-southwest-metros-offer-sellers-strong-opportunities-buyers-best-bets-are-in-midwest-mid-atlantic/

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More Americans Believe Economy Headed in Right Direction

By Pete Bakel

Despite continued uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff, Americans are showing increased confidence in the housing market and the direction of the economy. According to results from Fannie Mae’s November 2012 National Housing Survey, such improvement bodes especially well for continued strengthening in the housing sector, which in turn is likely to support overall economic growth. “Consumer attitudes toward both the economy and the housing market continue to gather momentum, with many of our 11 key National Housing Survey indicators at or near …

To read more – http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/corporate-news/2012/5897.html

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ARMLS Subscriber Confidence Index for December 2012

Similar to the Consumer Confidence Index published by the Conference Board, the relevance of the SCI lies in being the only economic indicator derived from the firsthand, up close observations of REALTORS® who operate at the front line of real estate in the Valley.

After heading downward last month in reaction to the Presidential election and the Fiscal Cliff, all three indices righted themselves upward in December. The Subscriber Confidence Index gained 3% to land at 78.6%.  The Present Confidence Index showed a slight increase (0.8%) to 81.3%, while the Expectation Index rose 4.6% to 76.5%.  The Valley and the economy are still facing uncertainty as Congress and the President wrestle with hard issues surrounding mandatory budgetary changes, which if implemented January 1, could seriously dampen Subscriber confidence in the recovery and their individual family income. That all three indices rose in December may signal faith that Congress and the President will arrive at a workable solution.

Similar to the Consumer Confidence Index, the SCI mirrors Subscriber reaction to changing market conditions and their experience with current Buyers and Sellers. This sentiment influences Subscriber investment and strategy regarding their professional real estate activities.

Survey Questions:

  1. What is your appraisal of current real estate conditions in the Valley compared to six months ago?
  2. What is your expectation of real estate conditions in the Valley six months from now?
  3. What is your appraisal of current business conditions in the Valley compared to six months ago?
  4. What is your expectation of business conditions in the Valley six months from now?
  5. What is your appraisal of current employment conditions in the Valley now compared to six months ago?
  6. What is your expectation of employment conditions in the Valley six months from now?
  7. What is your expectation of your family income six months from now?

Results:

Each question is given an index calculated by: (# Better / # Better + # Worse) x 100

  • Current Subscriber Confidence Index is the Average of all seven indices.
  • Present Confidence Index is an Average of the indices from Questions 1,3, and 5.
  • Expectation Confidence Index is an Average of the indices of Questions 2, 4, 6 and 7.

Below is the reading of ARMLS Subscriber Confidence Index for December 2012:

  • Current Subscriber Confidence Index: 78.6% up 3.0%
  • Present Confidence Indxex81.3% up 0.8%
  • Expectation Confidence Index75.6% up 4.6%
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ARMLS RENT Check™ – Nov 19, 2012

Metro Phoenix Rental Market Snapshot

Median Lease $:  $1,100

Average Lease $:  $1,251

Avg. Days on Market:  44

Rent Check Quotient™:  43%

Elevated lease activity is stoked by high foreclosures, which turn home owners into renters, and investor sales into rentals rather than owner occupied. Low inventory also drives potential homeowners to rent rather than purchase.

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