Similar to the Consumer Confidence Index published by the Conference Board, the relevance of the SCI lies in being the only economic indicator derived from the firsthand, up close observations of REALTORS® who operate at the front line of real estate in the Valley.

After heading downward last month in reaction to the Presidential election and the Fiscal Cliff, all three indices righted themselves upward in December. The Subscriber Confidence Index gained 3% to land at 78.6%.  The Present Confidence Index showed a slight increase (0.8%) to 81.3%, while the Expectation Index rose 4.6% to 76.5%.  The Valley and the economy are still facing uncertainty as Congress and the President wrestle with hard issues surrounding mandatory budgetary changes, which if implemented January 1, could seriously dampen Subscriber confidence in the recovery and their individual family income. That all three indices rose in December may signal faith that Congress and the President will arrive at a workable solution.

Similar to the Consumer Confidence Index, the SCI mirrors Subscriber reaction to changing market conditions and their experience with current Buyers and Sellers. This sentiment influences Subscriber investment and strategy regarding their professional real estate activities.

Survey Questions:

1. What is your appraisal of current real estate conditions in the Valley compared to six months ago?
2. What is your expectation of real estate conditions in the Valley six months from now?
3. What is your appraisal of current business conditions in the Valley compared to six months ago?
4. What is your expectation of business conditions in the Valley six months from now?
5. What is your appraisal of current employment conditions in the Valley now compared to six months ago?
6. What is your expectation of employment conditions in the Valley six months from now?
7. What is your expectation of your family income six months from now?

Results:

Each question is given an index calculated by: (# Better / # Better + # Worse) x 100

• Current Subscriber Confidence Index is the Average of all seven indices.
• Present Confidence Index is an Average of the indices from Questions 1,3, and 5.
• Expectation Confidence Index is an Average of the indices of Questions 2, 4, 6 and 7.

Below is the reading of ARMLS Subscriber Confidence Index for December 2012:

• Current Subscriber Confidence Index: 78.6% up 3.0%
• Present Confidence Indxex:  81.3% up 0.8%
• Expectation Confidence Index:  75.6% up 4.6%