By Pete Bakel

Despite continued uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff, Americans are showing increased confidence in the housing market and the direction of the economy. According to results from Fannie Mae’s November 2012 National Housing Survey, such improvement bodes especially well for continued strengthening in the housing sector, which in turn is likely to support overall economic growth. “Consumer attitudes toward both the economy and the housing market continue to gather momentum, with many of our 11 key National Housing Survey indicators at or near …

To read more – http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/corporate-news/2012/5897.html

Similar to the Consumer Confidence Index published by the Conference Board, the relevance of the SCI lies in being the only economic indicator derived from the firsthand, up close observations of REALTORS® who operate at the front line of real estate in the Valley.

After heading downward last month in reaction to the Presidential election and the Fiscal Cliff, all three indices righted themselves upward in December. The Subscriber Confidence Index gained 3% to land at 78.6%.  The Present Confidence Index showed a slight increase (0.8%) to 81.3%, while the Expectation Index rose 4.6% to 76.5%.  The Valley and the economy are still facing uncertainty as Congress and the President wrestle with hard issues surrounding mandatory budgetary changes, which if implemented January 1, could seriously dampen Subscriber confidence in the recovery and their individual family income. That all three indices rose in December may signal faith that Congress and the President will arrive at a workable solution.

Similar to the Consumer Confidence Index, the SCI mirrors Subscriber reaction to changing market conditions and their experience with current Buyers and Sellers. This sentiment influences Subscriber investment and strategy regarding their professional real estate activities.

Survey Questions:

1. What is your appraisal of current real estate conditions in the Valley compared to six months ago?
2. What is your expectation of real estate conditions in the Valley six months from now?
3. What is your appraisal of current business conditions in the Valley compared to six months ago?
4. What is your expectation of business conditions in the Valley six months from now?
5. What is your appraisal of current employment conditions in the Valley now compared to six months ago?
6. What is your expectation of employment conditions in the Valley six months from now?
7. What is your expectation of your family income six months from now?

Results:

Each question is given an index calculated by: (# Better / # Better + # Worse) x 100

• Current Subscriber Confidence Index is the Average of all seven indices.
• Present Confidence Index is an Average of the indices from Questions 1,3, and 5.
• Expectation Confidence Index is an Average of the indices of Questions 2, 4, 6 and 7.

Below is the reading of ARMLS Subscriber Confidence Index for December 2012:

• Current Subscriber Confidence Index: 78.6% up 3.0%
• Present Confidence Indxex:  81.3% up 0.8%
• Expectation Confidence Index:  75.6% up 4.6%

Foreclosure homes are the ones we help our investors to buy for low prices and turn into rental houses to implement the projected cap rates or cash on cash rates.

In November, lenders foreclosed on 1,549 houses in Maricopa County. That’s the lowest level since December 2007, right before the foreclosure crisis hit metro Phoenix, according to the Information Market.  During 2011, a typical number of foreclosures was 4,000 to 5,000 a month.

Foreclosure starts, the early indicator of foreclosures, fell to 2,094 in November. By comparison, in March 2009, lenders started the process to foreclose on more than 10,000 metro Phoenix houses. These declines in foreclosure activity are key to tell what will happen to the housing market in coming months.

Another piece of foreclosure data that is even more important now, those loans with recent late payments or no payment, called foreclosures in the pipelines. The total number of foreclosures in lenders’ pipelines across metro Phoenix was 10,606 at the end of November. A year ago, there were double that many foreclosures under way in the region. Two years ago, there were more than 40,000.

Overall, foreclosures continue to fall in metro Phoenix. As a result, multiple bids became the norm and home prices picked up.

Trend Homes’ Parent company Najafi Cos. LLC has agreed to sell its operations and assets to the Ryland Group Inc., a publicly traded home builder based in Westlake Village, Calif., for an undisclosed amount.

All Trend Homes employees are being merged into Ryland, and Reed Porter, Trend’s president and CEO, will serve as Ryland’s Phoenix division president.

Ryland is taking over Trend’s seven existing communities in Phoenix, Scottsdale and Gilbert, as well as four developments that are under way, including 84 homes at DMB Associates Inc.’s Eastmark community at the former GM Proving Grounds in Mesa.

Phoenix Business Journal by Kristena Hansen, Reporter